Where do we go from here?
A number of IT experts predict what technology will offer in the future. Andy Mulholland, chief technology officer for Capgemini, explains his theory of predicting the future in terms of technology. He says that upwards from ten years it is more and more difficult to predict as one has only demographics to go on.
11 July 2007
Publication
When forecasting technological futures: what we can reliably predict already exists, at least in the laboratory.
Beyond that, according to Andy Mulholland, chief technology officer at Capgemini, Europe’s largest computing services group, other factors cloud the issue: “I have a formula about where technology takes us. For a year ahead, you can be confident about where it is going because betas [prototypes in test] and alphas [finished designs] for the products which are going to come out already exist.
“For three years to five years ahead you have people collecting requirements definitions for the releases beyond that. Beyond five to 10 years, you might have an idea of what could come out of the laboratories. But from 10 to 20 years ahead, your only guidance is demographics: what people have grown up with and what they see as normal.”
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Andy Mulholland writes in the Capgemini CTO Blog.
